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2Q 2026 Kidneyverse Earnings Update
Natera, CareDx, Outset, DaVita, Fresenius, Humana, and UnitedHealth, plus two CMS policy updates worth tracking.
Welcome to the first edition of a new quarterly Signals series tracking earnings across the public companies shaping kidney care.
We follow more than 200 companies across the kidneyverse. Each quarter, we’ll pull out the results that matter most across diagnostics, therapeutics, dialysis, care delivery, and payers. We’re starting with seven: Natera, CareDx, Outset Medical, DaVita, Fresenius Medical Care, Humana, and UnitedHealth.
There was plenty happening beyond the earnings calls this quarter, too. CMS finalized a Medicare coverage decision expanding transplant surveillance testing, while its proposed CY2027 ESRD payment rule could reshape TDAPA economics across dialysis. We’re also using this cycle to update our kidney VBC dataset, beginning with new results from DaVita’s Integrated Kidney Care business below.
Q2 2026
Natera (reported Aug 6): Revenue hit $753M, up 38% year-over-year, on record test volumes of 1.04 million. Clinical MRD/Signatera volume jumped 56%, management raised full-year guidance to $2.85 to $2.91B, and shares climbed 16% after hours. Market cap has more than doubled over the past year, from about $20B in August 2025 to $45B as of August 10th.1 The quarter also came on the heels of a finalized Medicare local coverage determination that expands surveillance coverage for Prospera kidney testing to 6 tests in year one and 4 per year in years two and three, a meaningful reimbursement tailwind for the organ health franchise heading into Q3, one that also extends to CareDx, which reported July 30 (more below).
Outset Medical (reported Aug 6): The company signed a three-year, $40M agreement with HCA Healthcare to refresh its existing Tablo fleet, its first refresh deal to date. CEO Leslie Trigg said the quarter also included the company's highest number of new site installations in several years. Revenue grew 1% year-over-year to $31.6M (up 14% sequentially), gross margin expanded over 400 basis points to 42.0%, and net loss narrowed slightly to $18.0M. The company held $151M in total cash after using $9.5M during the quarter. Full-year guidance was reiterated at $125 to $130M.
DaVita (reported Aug 4): Revenue of $3.554B (up 5.2% Y/y) and adjusted EPS of $4.02 beat estimates, though shares still fell about 7.5% on the print. U.S. treatment volume ticked up too: DaVita performed 7.2 million dialysis treatments in the quarter, averaging 92,649 per day, a modest increase from Q1. IKC, DaVita's value-based kidney care arm, generated $40M in adjusted operating income in Q2, up from a $19M loss in Q1, per management commentary on the earnings call. On policy, DaVita flagged that CMS's proposed CY2027 ESRD PPS rule (released late June) tracks below industry cost trends amid complex TDAPA dynamics; the company is submitting comments, with the ultimate impact hinging on the final rule due later this year. CEO Javier Rodriguez pointed to hemodiafiltration (HDF) and the recently FDA-approved expanded HD option from NIPRO, with DaVita planning to deploy the compatible dialyzers across its network in coming quarters after its MOTheR trial showed expanded HD performs comparably to HDF on mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. The company reaffirmed full-year guidance. Find our 4Q 2024 earnings updats here.
Fresenius Medical Care (reported Aug 3): Adjusted operating income grew 23% (margin expanding to 11.7%) on 5% organic revenue growth, though reported (GAAP) operating income grew a more modest 10% and net income fell 3%. Value-Based Care revenue grew 9% organically to €536M ($617M), with segment operating income swinging to €18M ($21M) from a €9M ($10M) loss a year ago; management guided full-year VBC to land around breakeven. The company's 5008X CAREsystem rollout expanded to 227 U.S. clinics and more than 600,000 treatments, with roughly 170,000 of those using hemodiafiltration, including over 100,000 high-volume HDF treatments, and early data from its BEACON-US research initiative showing 40% fewer muscle cramps. Fresenius reaffirmed full-year guidance.
CareDx (reported Jul 30): Revenue jumped 52% year-over-year to $132M, driven by a 61% rise in testing-services revenue and 17% growth in testing volume to 58,000 tests. GAAP net income swung to $111M from a $9M loss, though that includes a one-time $113M gain from selling its Lab Products business; the company also closed its acquisition of Naveris, adding the NavDx oncology platform. CareDx raised full-year 2026 guidance to $490 to $500M in revenue and $66 to $78M in adjusted EBITDA. Like Natera, CareDx benefits directly from the finalized Medicare LCD affirming AlloSure Kidney coverage for up to six surveillance tests in year one, reducing reimbursement uncertainty right as demand accelerates.
Humana (reported Jul 29): Individual Medicare Advantage membership grew by roughly 1.2 million members, or 23%, year-to-date, tracking toward Humana's full-year target of about 25% growth. Adjusted EPS of $7.61 came in at the high end of guidance, with management citing cost favorability concentrated among members in value-based care arrangements; the company affirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9.00. CenterWell Primary Care also grew fast, up 27% to roughly 622,000 patients, aided by the MaxHealth acquisition. Humana’s Stars program metrics improved faster than their historical trend on 11 of 12 tracked measures, as the company works toward top-quartile Stars performance by 2028, a sharp contrast to UnitedHealth's shrinking MA book this same quarter. Find our 2024 Humana Kidney VBC update here.
UnitedHealth Group (reported Jul 16): Adjusted EPS rose 56% year-over-year to $6.38 as the medical care ratio improved to 86.7% from 89.4%, and the company raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $19.50–$20.00. Revenue of $112B was roughly flat. The company’s own language is the most directly value-based-care of any payer this quarter: Optum Health’s release describes the business “recenter[ing] on its integrated value-based care” model, even as Optum Health revenue fell 5% on roughly 700,000 fewer value-based care patients served. Seniors served through Medicare Advantage, including programs serving complex populations covered under Medicaid, contracted by 965,000 since year-end 2025, per the release. Worth tracking as the ACO/risk-based-contracting story develops into ACO LEAD next year. For scale: UnitedHealth’s market cap of roughly $380B is about 3x the combined value of the other six companies in this brief, as of Aug 10, 2026.
Up next
That's the first seven earnings updates from Signals. Tell us what you think, we want to improve our coverage and depth, and make sure we're capturing what these market moves mean for the broader kidney space. Our coverage will rotate each quarter, so the next cycle will bring in more payers, pharma developing therapies for this population, care delivery companies, and other names across the 200+ companies we track.
What are you watching in Q3? Drop a comment below.
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